Monty Hall - Revision history

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2023-06-22T13:04:53Z

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2023-06-19T02:45:22Z

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1d4chan>Saarlacfunkel: /* Monty Hall Problem */

2023-05-30T17:33:58Z

Monty Hall Problem

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:33, 30 May 2023
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	In more detail:		In more detail:
	# If you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.		# If you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.
	# That being said, the problem, ''as usually written up'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the ~~right~~ door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the problem unintentionally leave open this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question] as a correct answer.		# That being said, the problem, ''as usually written up'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the correct door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the problem unintentionally leave open this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question] as a correct answer.

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]

1d4chan>Saarlacfunkel: /* Monty Hall Problem */

2023-05-30T10:44:11Z

Monty Hall Problem

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:44, 30 May 2023
Line 18:		Line 18:
	In more detail:		In more detail:
	# If you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.		# If you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.
	# That being said, the problem, ''as usually written up'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the problem unintentionally ~~'''~~leave open~~'''~~ this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question] as a correct answer.		# That being said, the problem, ''as usually written up'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the problem unintentionally leave open this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question] as a correct answer.

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]

1d4chan>Saarlacfunkel at 10:36, 30 May 2023

2023-05-30T10:36:57Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:36, 30 May 2023
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	Anyway, /tg/ relevance is that ''LuMaD'' was, in fact, a game, even if a /tv/ hosted game; it has game-theory in it.		Anyway, /tg/ relevance is that ''LuMaD'' was, in fact, a game, even if a /tv/ hosted game; it has game-theory in it.

	As role-playing games go, a party will - somewhere - come across a door in the corridor which may host a trap or may host a treasure, or a monster, or all three~~<ref>To~~ quote a famous line, "A Gygaxian dungeon is like the world's most fucked up game show. Behind door number one: INSTANT DEATH! Behind door number 2: A magic crown! Behind door number 3: ten pounds of sugar being guarded by six giant KILLER BEES!"~~</ref>~~. A well-designed dungeon will apportion these in accordance with the plot, preferably also foreshadowing which door goes what way. Against that [[Q1: Queen of the Demonweb Pits]] is a notorious offender - it is Monty Hall design.		As role-playing games go, a party will - somewhere - come across a door in the corridor which may host a trap or may host a treasure, or a monster, or all three (to quote a famous line, "A Gygaxian dungeon is like the world's most fucked up game show. Behind door number one: INSTANT DEATH! Behind door number 2: A magic crown! Behind door number 3: ten pounds of sugar being guarded by six giant KILLER BEES!"). A well-designed dungeon will apportion these in accordance with the plot, preferably also foreshadowing which door goes what way. Against that [[Q1: Queen of the Demonweb Pits]] is a notorious offender - it is Monty Hall design.

	[[Gary Gygax]], with the benefit of hindsight, came to disown "Monty ''Haul''" design, wherein the special door might have too ''much'' treasure, which the DM couldn't easily take ''away'' from the players, thus unbalancing the game.		[[Gary Gygax]], with the benefit of hindsight, came to disown "Monty ''Haul''" design, wherein the special door might have too ''much'' treasure, which the DM couldn't easily take ''away'' from the players, thus unbalancing the game.

1d4chan>Saarlacfunkel at 10:36, 30 May 2023

2023-05-30T10:36:20Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:36, 30 May 2023
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	In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]		In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]

	~~The short version is, if~~ you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.		In more detail:
			# If you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.
	~~The above assumes an "Honest Monty" setup. Another thing to watch out for is~~ the ~~"Evil Monty" variation where~~ the host ''only offers you the chance ~~to switch~~ if ~~your first pick was~~ the right door.'' ~~Quite~~ the ~~dickish swerve to pull on someone~~ who ~~knows~~ the ~~math for an Honest Monty~~.		# That being said, the problem, ''as usually written up'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the problem unintentionally '''leave open''' this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question] as a correct answer.

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]

76.217.48.52: /* Monty Hall Problem */

2023-05-30T10:00:21Z

Monty Hall Problem

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:00, 30 May 2023
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	In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]		In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]

	The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong..~~. which~~ is the ~~explanation that most people who are wrong about the problem leave it at, while the question, ''as usually written'', leaves open the possibility that~~ the host ''only offers you the chance if ~~you selected~~ the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the question '''leave open''' this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the ~~option of cutting off the arm of the person~~ who ~~asked~~ the ~~question] as a correct answer~~.		The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.

			The above assumes an "Honest Monty" setup. Another thing to watch out for is the "Evil Monty" variation where the host ''only offers you the chance to switch if your first pick was the right door.'' Quite the dickish swerve to pull on someone who knows the math for an Honest Monty.

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]

1d4chan>Saarlacfunkel at 06:13, 30 May 2023

2023-05-30T06:13:24Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:13, 30 May 2023
Line 16:		Line 16:
	In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]		In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]

	The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong... which is the explanation that most people who are wrong about the problem leave it at, while the question, ''as usually written'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the question '''leave open''' this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question].		The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong... which is the explanation that most people who are wrong about the problem leave it at, while the question, ''as usually written'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the question '''leave open''' this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question] as a correct answer.

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]

1d4chan>Saarlacfunkel: /* Monty Hall Problem */

2023-05-30T05:52:41Z

Monty Hall Problem

← Older revision		Revision as of 05:52, 30 May 2023
Line 16:		Line 16:
	In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]		In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]

	The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.		The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong... which is the explanation that most people who are wrong about the problem leave it at, while the question, ''as usually written'', leaves open the possibility that the host ''only offers you the chance if you selected the right door'', sometimes known as the "Evil Monty" scenario; since most versions of the question '''leave open''' this possibility, we're left, much like the "third word in the english language ending in -gry" riddle, with [https://xkcd.com/169/ only the option of cutting off the arm of the person who asked the question].

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]

76.217.48.52 at 20:30, 29 May 2023

2023-05-29T20:30:52Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:30, 29 May 2023
Line 10:		Line 10:

	[[Gary Gygax]], with the benefit of hindsight, came to disown "Monty ''Haul''" design, wherein the special door might have too ''much'' treasure, which the DM couldn't easily take ''away'' from the players, thus unbalancing the game.		[[Gary Gygax]], with the benefit of hindsight, came to disown "Monty ''Haul''" design, wherein the special door might have too ''much'' treasure, which the DM couldn't easily take ''away'' from the players, thus unbalancing the game.

			===Monty Hall Problem===
			Based on (a common misunderstanding of) the ''LMaD'' finale, the Monty Hall Problem goes like this: Monty Hall presents you with three doors, one door hiding the treasure and two doors hiding goats. You pick one door, but that door doesn't open yet, Monty opens one of the goat doors instead. Now Monty asks you, do you want to swap your first pick with the other closed door? (This exact situation never showed up on ''LMaD'', it comes from an 1889 puzzle book and got conflated with Monty Hall much later)

	In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]		In 1990, a mathematician named Marilyn vos Savant received a question in Selvin's vein, to which she claimed that you should switch your choice after one of the doors got opened. She got a lot of [[RAGE]] for her answer by a bunch of people who called bullshit. Somehow, Selvin is correct; the math is hard to explain, so it's best to just look at [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions\| this table] and take her word for it; just remember that this is [[RAW\|one of those problems that rely very heavily on how the rules of the game are laid out.]]

			The short version is, if you're presented with three doors in a blind pick and asked "which door has the treasure?" you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right. The second question "do you want to change your pick?" is, statistically, the same as asking "was your first pick wrong?" And yes, there's a 2 in 3 chance your first pick was wrong.

	[[Category:Gamer Slang]]		[[Category:Gamer Slang]]