Deterrence

"But the whole point of the doomsday device is lost IF YOU KEEP IT A SECRET! WHY DIDN'T YOU TELL THE WORLD, 'EH?!"

– Doctor Strangelove

Deterrence is the art of producing, in the mind of a potential or actual adversary, the fear of consequence for initiating conflict. It is a subject which comes up frequently in game theory, psychology, and military science.

Central to the concept of deterrence is that the deterrent must be credible, that is, that adversary must perceive and acknowledge it as a likely and undesirable consequence. As Fyodor Dostoevsky observed, it is the certainty of consequence, more than the severity, which deters.